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Robert Shiller Predicts a 50% Decline in Housing Prices

September 18th, 2007 · 2 Comments

shiller.jpgRobert Shiller is one smart dude. He is an Economics professor at Yale, author of Irrational Exuberance, and co-founder of the Case Shiller Index. Today, he stated in an interview with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo about the Fed’s 50/50 rate cut, that he expects a big chill in the housing market with home prices declining in some markets as much as 50% for the months ahead. He is not surprised that the Fed dropped the Funds Rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% and the Discount Rate by 50 basis points to 5.25% today because he feels the possibility of a recession has increased significantly.

The Case Shiller Index is the most relied upon indicator for the state of the real estate market as a whole in the United States and used for futures and options contracts in the Chicago mercantile exchange.

NY Times online also published an article by Robert Shiller entitled “A Time for Bold Thinking on Housing” that’s one of the best assessments of the current housing market.

Watch Video: CNBC  Interview

Tags: Market Forecast

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Hojin Chang // Dec 5, 2007 at 10:24 am

    The only thing I can add is that Shiller’s opinions are based on really good data and sound economic theories. Standard & Poors, Wall Street, Yale, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange give him the stamp of approval for knowing what’s going on in the real estate market but real estate is very localized. The only problem is that the Central Florida region is one of the worst in the Case-Shiller index.

  • 2 Forecasts for Orlando Real Estate in 2008 // Jan 9, 2008 at 10:00 am

    […] Robert Shiller, creator of the Case-Shiller Index, predicts a decline of 20% to 25% in 2008. […]