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Case-Shiller Shows Necessary Price Declines

June 25th, 2008 · 1 Comment

The Case-Shiller Index numbers were released yesterday and the 20 city index showed record declines again. The 15.3% change is the fifth largest ever recorded. The 10 city index showed an ever bigger decline of 16.3% and worst decline was in Miami with 26.7%.

The metropolitan area of Tampa represents Orlando and the rest of Central Florida and it showed declines of 20.4% which is not that much better than Miami.

I know it looks bad but keep in mind that our inventory is declining. That’s not the case for most of the country. Also keep in mind that much of the country is seeing an increase in sales if you look at it on a month to month basis.

Prices will decline until the inventory reaches a pareto optimal limit. My humble guess is that it’s below 10 months of inventory. We’ll have to wait and see on that one, but the market is just balancing itself.

Buying a home should be seen with a time horizon of at least 5 years and preferably 10 years. Markets go up and down, but it’s impossible to time it just right. The best strategy is to look long term. Some of the best deals can be had right now with a long enough time horizon.

As foxy Erin Burnett pointed out, Shaquille O’neal is looking to buy real estate right now and I’m sure he’s got some smart advisers.

related post: The Orlando Market is Steadily Improving, Shaq’s House

The Case-Shiller Index numbers are as follows:

Metro Area April 2008 Change from March Year-over-year change
Atlanta 124.19 -0.1% -7.5%
Boston 158.68 0.1% -6.4%
Charlotte 131.82 0.2% -0.1%
Chicago 150.35 0.1% -9.3%
Cleveland 109.55 2.9% -6.8%
Dallas 120.41 1.1% -3.4%
Denver 128.49 0.8% -4.7%
Detroit 93.79 -1.9% -18%
Las Vegas 165.89 -2.0% -26.8%
Los Angeles 202.52 -2.2% -23.1%
Miami 200.42 -4.1% -26.7%
Minneapolis 131.19 -2.2% -15.5%
New York 193.93 -1.3% -8.4%
Phoenix 161.33 -3.4% -25%
Portland 174.87 0.3% -4.7%
San Diego 180.57 -2.6% -22.4%
San Francisco 164.63 -2.2% -22.1%
Seattle 179.57 0.7% -4.9%
Tampa 178.50 -2.1% -20.4%
Washington 201.21 -1.0% -14.8%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData

Tags: Market Statistics

1 response so far ↓

  • 1 Ed Peaslee // Jun 29, 2008 at 3:56 pm

    Thanks for the compilation of information. It’s incredible to see the numbers like drop like that. So if you’re selling you’re in a terrible spot but if you’re buying you have one of the better situations you could ask for… if you do it right. I like going to PropertyMaps to look at the properties available. It’s a Google Maps/MLS/RealtyTrac mashup so you can look at MLS and foreclosure properties.