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Inventory Drops for the 10th Straight Month in Orlando

June 13th, 2011 · 5 Comments

The big story lately in the real estate market here in Orlando is the downward trend for inventory levels. For the 10th straight month, the number of homes for sale has dropped yet again.

The number of homes for sale stood at 15,963 in May 2010 and now stands at 10,969 which represents at 31% drop in a 12 month period.

It’s now at its lowest level since December 2005.

At the same time sales have remained healthy and we saw 2,367 sales in May 2011. We had 2,783 sales in May 2010 but there’s a lot less for sale right now.

The supply of homes for sale based on closed sales stands at 4.6 months. Historically, a stable market in Orlando typically has 6 to 7 months of supply.

I can definitely notice a difference when I show properties. There’s a lot fewer homes to see these days.

The ever present caveat for the real estate market these days is the distressed home market which still accounts for nearly 65% of the market. Hopefully we’ll begin to shed this inventory as well.

Tags: Market Statistics

5 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Billygoat // Jun 14, 2011 at 9:43 am

    that’s because the banks are not foreclosing on anyone, it takes 2-3 years for the property to become a REO, In our neighborhood there are at least 15-20 homes that are in obvious foreclose and the people are still living there, the banks have millions of them in the pipe line but will not take .

  • 2 Billygoat // Jun 14, 2011 at 9:44 am

    shed the inventory, are you crazy, Orlando 60% of people upside down, 11% unemployment, give me a break. talk about the drop in prices and how only cash buyers or investors are buying.

  • 3 Hojin Chang // Jun 14, 2011 at 11:47 am

    Actually there’s 7 million homes 30 days behind and over 4 million households 60 days behind and the stats show most of them will go into foreclosure. So you’re right about more foreclosures on the market, but as it stands now, the inventory is way down and on a definite downward trend.

  • 4 Billygoat // Jun 14, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    It’s official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression.

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    Prices have fallen some 33 percent since the market began its collapse, greater than the 31 percent fall that began in the late 1920s and culminated in the early 1930s, according to Case-Shiller data.

    The news comes as the Federal Reserve considers whether the economy has regained enough strength to stand on its own and as unemployment remains at a still-elevated 9.1 percent, throwing into question whether the recovery is real.

    “The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression,” Paul Dales, senior economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, wrote in research for clients.

    According to Case-Shiller, which provides the most closely followed housing industry data, prices dropped 1.9 percent in the first quarter, a move that the firm interpreted as a clear double dip in prices.

    Moreover, Dales said prices likely have not completed their downturn.

    “The only comfort is that the latest monthly data show that towards the end of the first quarter prices started to fall at a more modest rate,” he said. “Nonetheless, prices are likely to fall by a further 3 percent this year, resulting in a 5 percent drop over the year as a whole.”

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    Prices continue to tumble despite affordability, which by most conventional metrics is near historic highs.

    The rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage is around 4.5 percent, just above the historic low of 4.2 percent in October 2010. The ratio measuring mortgage costs to renting is 7 percent below its norm, while the price-to-income ratio is 23 percent below its average, Dale said.

    Yet other factors are constraining the market.

    After the fallout from the subprime debacle, in which millions lost their homes when they defaulted on loans they could not afford, banks changed underwriting standards.

    More than four in every five mortgages now require a down payment of 20 percent, and credit history standards have tightened. At the same time, foreclosures continue at a brisk pace, pushing more supply onto the market and pressuring prices downward.

    Then there is the issue of underwater homeowners—those who owe more than their house is worth—representing another 23 percent of homeowners who cannot leave or are in danger of mortgage default.

    Indeed, the foreclosure problem is unlikely to get any better with 4.5 million households either three payments late or in foreclosure proceedings. The historical average is 1 million, according to Dales’ research.

    The only bright spot Dales found, aside from the slowing in price drop in March, was some isolated strength in states such as Nevada, Michigan, South Dakota, Alaska and Iowa.

  • 5 Billygoat // Jun 14, 2011 at 1:14 pm

    No it is now , yeah downward because everyone is upside down or behind in there payments or has no job. the only reason there are less homes on the market now. it will go up.