Hojin’s Southwest Orlando Real Estate Scoop

Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, says in this interview with the Wall Street Journal that the housing market is cooling because lenders overlend, builders overbuild, and consumers now expect a drop in prices. We really don’t need a degree from Harvard to figure that one out, but he also [...]

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Robert Shiller wrote in a recent article for the NY Times, “WE have to consider the possibility that the housing price downturn will eventually be as big as that of the last truly big decline, from 1925 to 1933, when prices fell by a total of 30 percent. This crisis should be an occasion for [...]

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First American’s Core Logic Risk Index was just released for the fourth quarter of 2007 and it sees the Orlando real estate market as one of the least prone to risk. The index measures the risk of loan delinquencies caused by fraud and collateral risk, house price dynamics, and the health of the local market [...]

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Donald Trump predicts on CNBC’s “The Billionaire Inside” that the bottom of the real estate market will be within the next 6 months to a year and says that right now is the best time to buy. A key point he made was that it pays to go against the grain, so the time to [...]

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Money Magazine reports today that “the worst in housing is yet to come” in 2008. Fiserv Lending Solutions predicts a decline of 5.7% next year which would make it the worst year for real estate in 40 years.
Patrick Newport of Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm, predicts double digit percentage declines for Florida because of [...]

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Florida is expected to see the steepest drop in housing starts according to the forecast just released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday. While the national average is expected to drop 24.8% this year, Florida is expected to drop 48.1%. Sarasota-Bradenton area is projected for the steepest decline in Florida with 67.5%. [...]

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PMI’s US Market Risk Index was just released for the fall quarter and the Orlando market maintains a score of 506 meaning Orlando real estate has a better than 50% chance of declining prices in the next 2 years. The state of Florida, alongside California, Nevada, and Arizona showed the largest concentrations of risk according [...]

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The housing slump in Florida is now slowing consumer spending according to a report by Margaret Brennan of CNBC on October 2, 2007. She reports a rising unemployment rate mainly in the housing sector is causing the slowdown. Numerous major retailers such as Target, Macy’s, Wal Mart, Home Depot, Lowes, and Winn Dixie are reporting [...]

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The former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan stated in a recent interview that “prices are going to fall much lower yet”. He states that the excess supply of homes will drive prices down.We here in Orlando have an excess supply that is greater than most other cities so if you assume Mr. Greenspan is correct, and [...]

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An article was published in July 2007 by Robert Shiller, author of “Irrational Exuberance” and creator of the Case-Shiller index, on the possibility of predicting housing booms and busts by studying their turning points in history reveals that it’s nearly impossible to predict a boom but busts are a bit more predictable. He also finds [...]

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