A look at the most recent stats for the real estate market here in SW Orlando shows we’ve come a long way from a year ago and perhaps even at a stable market already. The zip codes included for these stats include: 32819 (Dr. Phillips), 32835 (Metrowest),32836 (Dr. Phillips),32837 (Hunters Creek), 32811 (Millenia), 32821, 32824 (Wiliamsburg), 32830,34786 (Windermere), and 34787 (Winter Garden).

Probably the most glaring stats are the inventory and number of sales.

A year ago, the inventory stood at an astounding 19.4 months and now stands at only 5.7 months. That’s a pretty significant drop that’s new good news for the market. A stable market typically has 6 to 7 months of inventory, so by this measure we’re already in a stable market.

At the same time, the number of sales ballooned from 272 sales per month a year ago to 535 sales per month as of the most recent stats. That’s about an increase of 95%. Holy smokes that’s good news.

I’m sure you’re wondering why these numbers are so much better. The answer’s simple. Prices are a lot more attractive to buyers today than they were a year ago. The average sales price was $266,000 a year ago, but now stands at $164,000.

This also tells me that the lower end of the market is doing a lot better than the rest. I’m sure the first time home buyer tax credit as well the government’s push for FHA financing has a lot do with this stat. For once, there’s a government program that’s actually accomplishing what it’s set out to do.

The average list price is still hovering around $484,000 and actually higher than a year ago so I believe most of the improvement has been in the lower end of the market.

Either way, I love the new lower inventory and increased number of sales. Sure hope it spreads to slightly higher price ranges as well.

Things are looking up in the SW Orlando real estate market comprised of the following zip codes: 32819 (Dr. Phillips), 32811, 32821, 32824, 32830, 32835 (Metrowest), 32836 (Dr. Phillips), 32837(Hunters Creek), 32834, 34786(Windermere), and 34787 (Winter Garden) .

There’s more sales with less time on the market and a much lower supply meaning we’re at or near the bottom or is it? The only concern that I have these numbers are skewed artificially by the number of foreclosures that are selling. I guess time will tell.

In any case, the inventory is sitting at 7.9 months which is dang close to what a stable market here normally sees and sales are up 144% in the past 12 months. May 2008 only saw 358 sales while May 2009 saw 875 sales. Homes have been selling at about 94% of the asking price and the average days on market sits at 82 days which is a bit of an improvement from the 116 day average we saw a year ago.

So what’s the reason for the improvement? Simple, prices are becoming low enought to stimulate demand. The average sales price was $338,000 a year ago but now stands at $154,000 and the average price per square foot dropped from $160 a foot to $89 a foot in the same period.

I know, the historically low rates are a help but it’s harder to borrow money these days so I’m not sure how this is affecting the market.

I’m tempted to say the market is stable now but I am concerned about the next wave of foreclosures to hit the market. After the past couple of years, I’ll take any good news at this point.

The real estate numbers for zip code 34787 known as Winter Garden and Oakland show prices becoming more realistic in the past 12 months.

As of the end of February 2009, there’s still 23.3 months of inventory on the market which is a disappointment because the number has been dropping for a while. As we all know, one of the main obstacles for recovery in the market is the supply and it’s going the wrong direction at the moment.

The pace of sales has also been slowing and the number of sales are down 14.7% as compared to same time 12 months ago. The number of homes under contract are up significantly, but I believe they’re mostly short sales that stay pending for quite a few months.

The good news is that prices are becoming more realistic in the area. The average price per square foot has dropped 25.8% in the past 12 months and currently stands at $93 per foot. The average price of homes sold dropped from $269,000 to $182,000 which represents a decline of 21.2%.

Another bit of good news is that homes are selling more quickly. The average days on market dropped 49% and currently stands at 75 days.

There’s not a lot of good news here as I had hoped, but prices are becoming more realistic.

It’s been a tumultuous ride for the real estate market in Metrowest for 2008. The average price per square currently stands at $60 a foot which represents a 65.8% decline over the past 12 months and the average sales price stands at $80,000 which is 71.8% lower than it was a year ago. I don’t know about you, but I feel like I got kicked in the stomach.

Looking at these two stats, it’s not lookin good over here in Metrowest but there are some good things to take away. First, I believe most of this mess is from the numerous apartment conversions which became popular back during the boom times. It’s a holy mess for those types of properties and if I were your agent, I’d tell you not to touch that one with a 10 foot pole. So, really the apartment conversions are skewing the numbers a bit.

Even with these conversions, the inventory is down to only 16.4 months with is way lower than the 2 year mark it’s been hovering around. Let me also point out that pending home sales are up 390% over the past year. On the surface, it sounds like a good thing, but any one hear of thing called a short sale. It’s precisely the reason there’s so many pendings. The banks are not set up to deal with this and thus take forever and a day to give an answer on an offer. So that means the inventory number is a bit off as well, but I’m looking for good new here… give me a break.

My guess is that these numbers would be a lot better if the apartment conversions were excluded. Forgive me if I offended you and you own a conversion. We don’t have to agree on everything. I told a friend of mine he’s retarded for wanting to buy some conversions during the boom, and I’m sticking to my opinion.

There’s some great communities in Metrowest…. it’s just that the apartment conversions are a mess.

The good news is that the inventory of homes on the market currently stands at 15.6 months which represents a drop of 20.4% in the past 12 months and 39.1% in the past 15 months.

The median price has dropped from $456,000 a year ago to $350,000 as of December 2008. The ever popular average price per square foot statistic currently stands at $137 per foot which represents a decline of 26.3% in the past year. That means prices are becoming more realistic and a sign that we’re getting closer to stabilization.

The bad news is that we’re not out of the woods yet. Prices are continuing to fall and there’s no end in sight for the near term. I mean the average price for a home in this zip code is $867,000 but the average price of a home sold is $350,000. That tells me that the more reasonably priced communities like Emerald Forest, Diamond Cove, and Sand Lake Point are faring much better than Vizcaya, Phillips Landing, or Turtle Creek.

This area is always going to do well, but it’s not looking good for the near term.

As expected, the average price per square foot has dropped from$143 a year ago to to $106 marking a 26.1% decline in the 15 month period. It is taking a little longer to sell though. The average days on market has increased 14.1% and currently stands at 105 days. The average price of homes sold as of November 2008 stands at $240,000 which is a 24.3% decline from the average sales price of $317,000 15 months ago. Inventory levels dropped 57.6% from 34.7 months of homes on the market to 14.7 months in the past 15 months.

I admit things don’t look rosy yet, but they’re definitely improving.

Perhaps some of the improvement can be attributed to more realistic pricing. The price per square foot has dropped from $238 a year ago to $142 which represents a drop of 40.4%. I’m not paying too much attention to the number of pendings these days because many of them are short sales which typically stays pending 2 to 3 months only to come back on the market again.

Windermere is definitely an upscale area with many of Central Florida’s most exquisite and also the most expensive homes. I don’t have a crystal ball, but it’s a pretty safe bet that this area will be one of the first to rebound when the market recovers.

The zip codes included in the following stats include: 32811 (Millenia Mall area), 32819 (Dr. Phillips), 32821, 32824 (Williamsburg), 32830, 32835 (Metrowest), 32836 (Dr. Phillips), 32837 (Hunters Creek), 34786 (Windermere), and 34787 (Winter Garden).

There were 5,191 homes for sale, 256 homes sold, and 20.3 months of inventory in July 2007 and 5,294 homes for sale, 249 homes sold, and 21.3 months of inventory in July 2008. Perhaps a little worse, but pretty similar numbers from a year ago. The market’s not great, but not getting much worse. Considering the economic environment, I see it as a positive.

One glaring statistic is the decline in median price from $298,000 to $230,000 in the same 12 month period. That’s a drop of over 22% in a year. While it sounds like a big drop, it’s a sign that prices are coming down to reflect changes in the market and the march towards stabilization.

Hopefully the stagnation will continue signaling market stabilization in SW Orlando. Prices will have to stop declining for us to get there and the inventory needs to get thinned out a bit. As far as supply, a stable market in SW Orlando typically has 6 months of inventory. We’re a long ways off, but the supply is not going up.

Sand Lake Cove is a popular community located off Darlene Road in the Dr. Phillips area. The homes were built by Beazer and Lennar in the mid 90’s and offer modern floor plans. The lots here look a little less established with less trees and smaller size lots than Sand Lake Point or Bay Vista Estates which are similar in price, but you do get a newer style of home.

The homes with frontage on Big Sand Lake are the most desirable and the priciest, but the average price here is $373,000 with an average size of 2,871 square feet. 6 sales have taken place in the past 6 months and it took an average of 203 days to sell. The lowest sales price in the past 6 months was $330,000 and the highest was $410,000. The average price per square foot was $151.

If you like the being close to Restaurant Row, the Dr. Phillips Community Park, and all the amenities that Dr. Phillips has to offer with a newer home, I’d check this place out along with Diamond Cove, Emerald Forest, and Toscana.

related links: Sales Detail for Sand Lake Cove for the Past 6 Months in 2008

See Properties for Sale in Sand Lake Cove